Robinhood (HOOD): Presentation 1

Robinhood: free to trade, $1.3B a quarter

A U.S. app-based brokerage: investing, crypto, banking in one app

$0 commission per stock trade

SLIDE 1 · 0:00 → 0:26 · about 24 s aloud at 140 wpm

SAY ALOUD AND DEFINE ON FIRST USE: brokerage, zero commission

SCRIPT

Good morning, members of the Board. You are weighing an investment in Robinhood, a U.S. brokerage, a firm that trades investments for customers: investing, crypto and banking in one app. Meet Maya: invented, but her numbers are Robinhood's. She buys a share for zero commission, no fee per trade, yet Robinhood made 1.3 billion dollars last quarter.

IF CUT: drop "Good morning," (last on the cut ladder). Never cut the two definitions or the Board line.

DETAIL MOVED OFF THE SLIDE (for Q&A)

title: Robinhood: free to trade, yet $1.3 billion of revenue last quarter

footer: Source: Robinhood Q2 2026 results release, Jul 29 2026.

subtitle: Business model, competitive position, risks and a recommendation to the Board · Presentation 1 · FIN 4395.001 · Sharad Patel · October 15, 2026

sentence: A U.S. app-based brokerage and financial-services company: stocks, options, crypto, event contracts, retirement, banking and a credit card in one app.

figure: $1,308M Q2 2026 revenue · $0 commission

28.4M funded customers hold ~$13K on average

Robinhood grows by pulling money in, not by charging fees

Business model · Competition · Risks · Verdict · Recommendations

$13.0K

platform assets per funded customer ($369B ÷ 28.4M)

Churn

Q2: 0.4M of 27.4M (~1.5%/qtr) · FY2025: 1.7M of 25.2M (6.7%), up from 0.9M · zero-balance accounts only

Keep

Gold 17% of customers · 3% IRA match (up to $225) · 5-yr transfer-bonus clawback

Win

Referral stock + 1% transfer match (up to 3%, promo)

28.4M

funded customers · Q2: +0.9M new, +0.2M returning, +0.3M acquired, −0.4M churned

$369B

platform assets

$21.7B

net deposits Q2 (28% annualized) · Aug $4.0B (14%) = proxy for staying

> 1M

international customers

U.S.: substantially all revenue

Canada

Singapore

SLIDE 2 · 0:26 → 1:41 · about 66 s aloud at 140 wpm

SAY ALOUD AND DEFINE ON FIRST USE: funded customers, Platform assets, proxy, net deposits, Gold, IRA, clawback

SCRIPT

Maya is one of 28.4 million funded customers, people with money in an account or a trade in the last 45 days. Platform assets, customers' money, not Robinhood's, were 369 billion dollars, about 13 thousand each: Maya's balance. Does account size decide who stays? Robinhood does not split churn by size, and counts only zero balances: about 1.5 percent a quarter. So my proxy, or stand-in, for staying is net deposits, new money in minus money out: 21.7 billion, a 28 percent annual pace, slowing to 14 percent in August. She came for referral stock and a transfer match. What keeps customers is Gold, a paid subscription 17 percent hold; a 3 percent IRA retirement match, up to 225 dollars; and a five year clawback of bonuses if money leaves. Revenue is almost all American; footholds: UK, EU, Canada, Singapore. For the Board: Robinhood grows by pulling money in, not by charging fees.

IF CUT (saves ~4 s): drop "She came for referral stock and a transfer match." (the Win row stays on the slide). Never cut the account-size, churn and proxy sentences (Sircar Q4) or the Board line.

(Low-text deck: any figure the script says stays on the slide is on appendix slide 13, Key figures, and in the detail below.)

DETAIL MOVED OFF THE SLIDE (for Q&A)

title: 28.4 million funded customers, often first-time investors, ≈ $13K assets / customer — Robinhood grows by pulling money in, not by charging fees

footer: Sources: Robinhood Q2 2026 release (Jul 29 2026); Form 10-Q Q2 2026, Key Performance Metrics (Jul 30 2026); August 2026 operating data (Sep 10 2026); FY2025 Form 10-K (Feb 18 2026); robinhood.com referral, transfer-bonus and IRA pages (accessed Oct 13 2026); Robinhood newsroom (Aug 10 2026); Schwab release (Oct 1 2019). Assets per funded customer = $369B ÷ 28.4M, incl. ≈ $50B of advisor (RIA) assets on TradePMR; ≈ $11.2K ex-advisor.

footnotes: Referral stock = free shares given to a customer who invites a friend who funds an account. Transfer-match = a cash bonus equal to a % of assets moved in from another broker. MiCA / MiFID = the EU's crypto-asset and investment-services licensing regimes. MAS = Monetary Authority of Singapore. APY = annual percentage yield. Churn = share of customers who leave in a period; Robinhood counts a customer as churned when the balance is ≤ $0 with no transaction for 45 days, so leavers who keep a balance are not counted. n/d = not disclosed. Proxy = a stand-in measure; net deposits stand in for customers staying, because churn counts only zero-balance accounts. Returning = a churned customer who funds an account again (the 10-Q's "resurrected"). Acquired = customers added by buying a company (WonderFi, Canada, Jun 1 2026). Clawback = Robinhood takes a transfer bonus back if the money leaves within five years.

thesis: Viable — conditional on trading volume, interest rates and court rulings.

- Funded customers 28.4M (+1.9M YoY) → 28.6M at Aug 31 2026

- Q2 2026 change +1.0M = 0.9M new + 0.2M returning + 0.3M acquired (WonderFi, bought Jun 1 2026) − 0.4M churned

- Platform assets $369B → $383.7B at Aug 31 2026

- ≈ $13K assets / customer ($369B ÷ 28.4M, Jun 30 2026) — big callout (Sircar Q4)

- New customers: "often more than 50%" say Robinhood is their first brokerage account

- Net deposits $21.7B in Q2 2026 (28 % annualized); August $4.0B (14 % annualized): the proxy for staying, since churn counts only zero balances; LTM $75.7B

- International funded customers > 1M

leftHead: Customers (all as of Jun 30 2026 unless dated)

retentionQ: does account size determine staying or leaving?

retention: Churn: Q2 2026 0.4M of 27.4M churned (≈ 1.5 %/qtr) · FY2025 1.7M of 25.2M (6.7 %), up from 0.9M in FY2024 · counts zero-balance accounts only. Proxy for staying: net deposits ($21.7B in Q2, 28 % annualized; August $4.0B, 14 %); also funded-customer growth (+7 % YoY) and Gold growth (3.48M → 4.84M, +39 % YoY). Levers: Gold 3.6 % APY on cash · IRA match 3 % with Gold, up to $225 a year (1 % without) · transfer bonus must stay 5 years or it is clawed back · product breadth (s4).

middleHead: Go-to-market

middle: app-store self-serve onboarding · referral stock: $50 for 1 referral → $10,000 at 200; up to $15,000 a year (program effective Sep 1 2026) · transfer-match: personalized 1 %, 2 % or 3 % bonus on taxable account transfers, Sep 21 – Oct 16 2026, + up to $75 of the other broker's transfer fee reimbursed; 1 % on IRA transfers all year.

rightHead: Geographies (map strip)

- U.S. — "Substantially all of [its] revenues and assets are attributed to or located in the United States."

- UK — brokerage via Robinhood U.K. Ltd; crypto via Bitstamp UK Ltd launched Aug 10 2026

- EU — Robinhood Europe, UAB (Lithuania), MiCA licence from the Bank of Lithuania + MiFID

- Canada — WonderFi acquisition closed Q2 2026

- Singapore — MAS capital markets services licence Jul 1 2026; brokerage planned

industry: U.S. retail brokerage. $0 online commissions have been the industry standard since Schwab's Oct 1 2019 cut.

Free is not free: trades pay 59%

Transactions, interest and other revenues make up Q2 2026 revenue

Business model · Competition · Risks · Verdict · Recommendations

How PFOF pays

Customer

Robinhood

Market maker

order, $0

routes order

pays

$471M

options + equities, mostly PFOF · 36% of Q2 revenue

59%

$776M

Transactions

30%

$389M

Net interest

11%

$143M

Other revenues

Options 342

Event contracts 156

Equities 129

Crypto 100 · Other 49

Margin 215

Cash & other 174

Gold 54

Proxy 42

Other 47

(paid by companies)

Q2 2026 net revenue, $M · total 1,308 = 776 + 389 + 143

SLIDE 3 · 1:41 → 3:05 · about 68 s aloud at 140 wpm

SAY ALOUD AND DEFINE ON FIRST USE: payment for order flow, or PFOF, order flow, market maker, bid-ask spread, options, Event contracts, net interest revenue, margin

SCRIPT

Free is not free. How does Robinhood make money? Three ways. First, transactions, 776 million, mostly payment for order flow, or PFOF: order flow means customers' orders.

[click] PFOF diagram appears

When Maya taps Buy, Robinhood sends her order to a market maker, a wholesaler ready to buy or sell, who pays Robinhood a slice of the bid-ask spread, the gap between buying and selling prices. Stocks and options, the right to buy or sell a stock at a set price, brought 471 million, mostly that payment, 36 percent of revenue.

[click] transaction bar splits into its five lines

The largest line is options: 342 million. Event contracts, yes-or-no contracts on outcomes like a game or a Fed decision: 156. Second, net interest revenue, 389 million, 30 percent: 215 on margin, money Robinhood lends against stocks, and 174 on cash like Maya's and other lines. Third, other revenues, 143 million, 11 percent: Gold 54, proxy fees from companies 42, other 47. For the Board: 59 percent of revenue rides on trading.

IF CUT (saves ~3 s): say "led by Gold at 54." in place of "Gold 54, proxy fees from companies 42, other 47." Never cut the PFOF, order-flow, market-maker or bid-ask definitions, the 471 million line or "59 percent of revenue rides on trading".

DETAIL MOVED OFF THE SLIDE (for Q&A)

title: Free is not free: 59 % of revenue comes from trades, 30 % from interest on customer money, 11 % from other revenues (Gold is the largest single line)

footer: Source: Robinhood Form 10-Q for Q2 2026, Note 6 (filed Jul 30 2026); Q2 2026 release (Jul 29 2026); Rule 606 report, Q2 2026 (generated Jul 28 2026); RHF fee schedule & robinhood.com (accessed Oct 13 2026). $ millions as reported. Q2 2026 = latest reported quarter; Q3 2026 results due Oct 27 2026 (Robinhood IR, Oct 1 2026).

footnotes: Yield = interest rate earned on a balance. Cash sweep = customers' uninvested cash moved to partner banks; Robinhood keeps the spread between the bank rate and the rate paid to customers. Securities lending = lending customers' shares to short-sellers for a fee. Segregated cash = customer cash held in protected accounts as regulators require. Order flow = customers' buy and sell orders; market makers pay brokers to receive them, and that payment is PFOF. Proxy revenue = fees companies (issuers), not customers, pay Robinhood's Say Technologies unit to send shareholder-vote materials and tally the votes; seasonal: $42M of H1 2026's $50M came in Q2. ARPU = average revenue per user, annualized ($187 in Q2 2026).

fee: Stocks/ETFs $0 commission · stock & ETF options $0 per contract · index options $0.50 per contract ($0.35 with Gold) · crypto via market makers: no commission · Gold $5/month or $50/year

Column | Segments (bottom → top), $M | Column total | Share of $1,308M

Transaction-based | Options 342 · Event contracts 156 · Equities 129 · Crypto 100 · Other 49 | 776 | 59.3 %

Net interest | Margin interest 215 · Segregated cash 60 · Cash sweep 41 · Credit card 40 · Corporate cash 31 · Securities lending 10 · Credit facility interest (10) · Other 2 | 389 | 29.7 %

Other revenues | Gold subscriptions 54 · Proxy 42 (paid by companies; seasonal) · Other 47 (incl. Trump Account services) | 143 | 10.9 %

pfofFlow: Customer → (order, $0 commission) → Robinhood → (routes order) → Market maker → (pays Robinhood) → back to Robinhood

pfofReturn: Stocks: 12.35 % of the spread (regular hours)

pfofUnder: Options + equities PFOF = $471M = 36 % of revenue · crypto rebates ≤ $100M (≤ 8 %) · event contracts = commissions, not PFOF

drivers: Transaction = customers × ARPU from trading · Net interest = balances × yield · Other = subscribers × price. ARPU $187 (annualized, Q2 2026).

Zero commission is the entry ticket

What keeps customers: one app, six product lines, lowest big-broker margin, Gold

Business model · Competition · Risks · Verdict · Recommendations

4.8M

Gold subscribers · 17% of customers

$5/month · $54M revenue in Q2 (4% of revenue)

What Gold adds

3.6% APY on cash · 3% IRA match (up to $225) · $0.35 index-option contracts (vs $0.50)

ONE APP

Investing

Crypto

Event contracts

Retirement

Banking

Gold Card

Strategies advisory

Legend (desktop)

CORE COMPETENCIES

>50%

new customers: first brokerage

57%

adj. EBITDA margin, self-built back office

business lines above $100M a year

SLIDE 4 · 3:05 → 3:46 · about 37 s aloud at 140 wpm

SAY ALOUD AND DEFINE ON FIRST USE: none on this slide

SCRIPT

Maya switches Gold on. Zero commission is the entry ticket; what keeps her is one app, six product lines, the lowest big-broker margin rate and Gold: 5 dollars a month for 3.6 percent on her cash. 4.8 million pay, 17 percent of customers: 54 million last quarter, 4 percent of revenue.

[click] core-competency cards appear

Three core competencies: mobile onboarding, the first brokerage for over half of new customers; a self-built back office behind a 57 percent adjusted EBITDA margin; and product speed: 13 business lines above 100 million a year.

IF CUT: nothing. The first two sentences answer Sircar Q2.

DETAIL MOVED OFF THE SLIDE (for Q&A)

title: Zero commission is the entry ticket; one app, six product lines, the lowest big-broker margin rate and Gold keep customers

footer: Sources: Robinhood Q2 2026 release (Jul 29 2026); Form 10-Q Q2 2026 Note 6 (Jul 30 2026); FY2025 Form 10-K Items 1 & 1A (Feb 18 2026); robinhood.com/gold and margin-rates pages (accessed Oct 13 2026).

footnotes: APY = annual percentage yield. Prediction markets = the app section where event contracts trade. Adjusted EBITDA = earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, excluding stock pay and one-offs (Robinhood's definition). AUM = assets under management. Self-clearing = Robinhood settles its own trades instead of paying a clearing firm. IRA = individual retirement account (tax-advantaged); Gold adds a 3 % match on contributions, up to $225 a year.

q: Is the fee charge / revenue model part of the value proposition for consumers?

a: Yes, as the entry ticket. Zero commission is the entry ticket; what keeps customers is one app, six product lines, the lowest big-broker margin rate and Gold. The customer pays indirectly: through the spread, and through interest on customer cash and margin loans.

problem: I want to start investing small amounts from my phone, without paying a fee every time I trade.

- Investing (stocks, ETFs, options)

- Crypto

- Event contracts / prediction markets

- Retirement (IRA + match)

- Banking (> $3B deposits, > 240K funded customers)

- Gold Card (> 1M cardholders, > $17B annualized purchase volume)

- Strategies advisory (> 300K funded customers, ≈ $2B AUM)

- Legend desktop platform

- $5/month or $50/year

- 30-day free trial

- 3.6 % APY on brokerage cash

- 3 % IRA match (up to $225 a year; stay on Gold 1 year, keep the assets 5 years)

- $0.35 index-option contracts

- first $1,000 of margin included

- 4.8M subscribers = 17 % of funded customers; ≈ 40 % of new funded customers signed up in Q2

- Gold revenue $54M in Q2 = 4.1 % of revenue

- Mobile onboarding → "often more than 50%" of new customers say it is their first brokerage account

- Low-cost, self-built back office (self-clearing; core platform on AWS) → Adjusted EBITDA margin 57 % in Q2 ($741M ÷ $1,308M)

- Product velocity → 13 business lines at $100M+ annualized revenue

Management plans three pillars to keep growing

Each pillar with its Q2 2026 KPI

Business model · Competition · Risks · Verdict · Recommendations

774M

options contracts, +50% YoY

~516M

Q2 2025

774M

Q2 2026

Active traders

4.84M

Gold subscribers, one wallet-share lever, +39% YoY

3.48M

Q2 2025

4.84M

Q2 2026

Wallet share

Keeps clientele: Gold, banking, card, retirement

> 1M

international funded customers

Canada

Singapore

Global ecosystem

SLIDE 5 · 3:46 → 4:17 · about 27 s aloud at 140 wpm

SAY ALOUD AND DEFINE ON FIRST USE: none on this slide

SCRIPT

Management plans three pillars to keep growing, each with a KPI. One, active traders: 774 million options contracts, up 50 percent. Two, wallet share, more of Maya's money here: Gold, banking, the card and retirement; Gold grew 39 percent to 4.84 million. Three, a global ecosystem: over 1 million international funded customers. That is how it offers more to keep clientele while it grows.

IF CUT: nothing. "That is how it offers more to keep clientele while it grows" answers Sircar Q5.

DETAIL MOVED OFF THE SLIDE (for Q&A)

title: Management's growth plan has three pillars — trade more, own more of each customer's money, go global

footer: Sources: Robinhood Q2 2026 release (Jul 29 2026); Form 10-Q Q2 2026, Key Performance Metrics (Gold 3.48M → 4.84M); Robinhood newsroom — HOOD Summit 2026 keynote (Sep 29 2026) and UK crypto launch (Aug 10 2026).

footnotes: Wallet share = the fraction of a customer's total financial business (investing, saving, spending) that sits with one company. Perpetual futures = futures contracts with no expiry date. Cboe = the options exchange operator.

Pillar | KPI (Q2 2026) | HOOD Summit 2026 items slotted under it (Sep 29 2026)

#1 Platform for Active Traders | Options contracts 774M, +50 % YoY (record) | Options hours 7:30 AM – 4:15 PM ET from October · 24/7 weekend equities planned (pending regulatory review) · Cboe earnings contracts · perpetual futures (U.S.) · Robinhood Agents (AI, coming soon)

#1 in Wallet Share for the Next Generation | Gold subscribers 3.48M → 4.84M (+39 % YoY), one wallet-share lever; 17 % adoption; Banking > $3B deposits | Robinhood Social generally available

#1 Global Financial Ecosystem | International funded customers > 1M | UK crypto launch Aug 10 2026 · Canada (WonderFi) · Singapore licence Jul 1 2026

calloutQ: How can they offer more to keep clientele while they grow?

calloutA: Pillar 2 is the answer management gives (face: "Keeps clientele: Gold, banking, card, retirement"); slide 11 adds what it has not yet done.

Robinhood is broadest; Schwab accounts hold ~26× more

All six product lines, but far smaller balances than Schwab

Business model · Competition · Risks · Verdict · Recommendations

$1K

$10K

$100K

$1M

Product lines offered (count, of 6) →

Fidelity: account count not in Q2 update ($19.9T AUA)

Assets per customer or account, $ (log scale)

Robinhood $13.0K

Schwab $334K

Coinbase $32.4K (proxy)

Webull $5.6K

eToro $4.5K

SoFi $2.9K (proxy)

~26×

Schwab assets per account ($334K) vs Robinhood per funded customer

SLIDE 6 · 4:17 → 4:54 · about 35 s aloud at 140 wpm

SAY ALOUD AND DEFINE ON FIRST USE: none on this slide

SCRIPT

Where else could Maya go? Across is breadth, how many of six product lines each offers; up is assets per customer, and each gridline is ten times the one below. Robinhood is broadest, all six lines, but low: about 13 thousand per customer. Schwab averages 334 thousand per account, about 26 times more: wealthier money, fewer products. The rest sit below Robinhood, except Coinbase; Fidelity publishes no account count. For the Board: will accounts like Maya's grow here, or leave for Schwab?

IF CUT (FIRST cut if the clock runs long, saves ~5 s): drop "The rest sit below Robinhood, except Coinbase; Fidelity publishes no account count." (the labels and the Fidelity chip stay on the slide).

(Low-text deck: any figure the script says stays on the slide is on appendix slide 13, Key figures, and in the detail below.)

DETAIL MOVED OFF THE SLIDE (for Q&A)

title: Robinhood is the broadest app in the field — but its ≈ $13K assets / customer is about one twenty-sixth of Schwab's ≈ $334K per account

footer: Sources: each firm's latest release/filing — Robinhood Q2 release (Jul 29 2026); Schwab monthly activity (Sep 15 2026); Fidelity Q2 2026 business update; Coinbase 10-Q Q2 2026; Webull Q2 2026 release (Aug 19 2026); eToro Q2 2026 results (Aug 11 2026); SoFi Q2 2026 release (Jul 29 2026). Breadth from each firm's product pages (accessed Oct 13 2026). Robinhood = platform assets per funded customer, incl. ≈ $50B advisor (RIA) assets; ≈ $11.2K ex-advisor.

footnotes: Log axis = each gridline is 10× the one below, so $3K and $300K both fit. Denominators differ by firm: Robinhood/Webull/eToro = funded customers/accounts; Schwab = active accounts; Coinbase = monthly transacting users (traded at least once in 28 days); SoFi = members (incl. credit-score-only sign-ups). Coinbase's assets include institutional custody while its users are retail, so its dot is a proxy (hollow). RIA = registered investment adviser. Public.com (private) also offers $0 trading, options rebates and prediction markets — not plotted (no disclosed assets). n/d = not disclosed.

Firm | x = breadth | y = assets per customer | Basis (own denominator) | Source

Robinhood (green, large) | 6 | $13.0K | $369B ÷ 28.4M funded customers, Jun 30 2026 (incl. ≈ $50B advisor/RIA assets; ≈ $11.2K ex-advisor) | H1

Schwab | 4 (no spot crypto yet, no event contracts) | $334K | $13.41T client assets ÷ 40.1M active accounts, Aug 31 2026 (incl. RIA custody) | C-S1

Fidelity | 5 | n/d (shown as a chip below the axis) | $19.9T assets under administration, Jun 30 2026; no account count published | C-F1

Coinbase | 3 | $32.4K (hollow dot = proxy; label "assets / user incl. institutional") | $245.9B assets on platform (incl. institutional custody) ÷ 7.6M retail monthly transacting users, Q2 2026 — not like-for-like, excluded from the per-customer comparison | C-C1

Webull | 5 | $5.6K | $28.5B customer assets ÷ 5.13M funded accounts, Jun 30 2026 | C-W1

eToro | 3 | $4.5K | $19.2B assets under administration ÷ 4.28M funded accounts (worldwide), Jun 30 2026 | C-E1

SoFi | 5 | $2.9K (hollow dot = proxy) | $45.5B deposits ÷ 15.8M members, Jun 30 2026 — investment assets n/d | C-So1

chartSpec: x-axis = product breadth (count of 6 product lines offered: equities · options · crypto · event contracts · banking · retirement; a line counts only if sourced on the firm's own page/filing); y-axis = assets per customer, log axis ($1K → $1M). Seven dots:

Ties or beats every rival on commission

Rivals win elsewhere: scale, advice, crypto depth, lending, reach, subscription price

Business model · Competition · Risks · Verdict · Recommendations

$0 commission per options contract at Robinhood · $0.65 at Schwab and Fidelity

	Robinhood	Schwab	Fidelity	Webull	Coinbase	SoFi	eToro (US)
Options / contract	$0	$0.65	$0.65	$0	n/d	$0	$0
Margin at $25K	5.3%	11.6%	11.6%	8.7%	n/d	9.8%	n/d
Makes money from	Trades 59%	Interest + fees	n/d (private)	Order flow 57%	Transactions 49%	Lending 59%	Trading ~62%
Robinhood loses on	n/a	scale	scale, advice	subscription price, Premium margin 5.00%	crypto depth	lending	global reach

Similar: Webull also lives on order flow. Different: Schwab and SoFi live on interest and lending.

SLIDE 7 · 4:54 → 5:48 · about 53 s aloud at 140 wpm

SAY ALOUD AND DEFINE ON FIRST USE: none on this slide

SCRIPT

Here is the fee structure versus competitors, and how each makes money. Robinhood ties or beats every rival on commission: zero per options contract; Schwab and Fidelity charge 65 cents.

[click] Schwab cell highlights

Against Schwab, it wins on price, with margin at 5.3 percent, the lowest in that row, and loses on scale.

[click] Fidelity cell highlights

Against Fidelity, same price; it loses on scale and in-person advice.

[click] Webull cell highlights

Against Webull, it wins on scale and loses on subscription price.

[click] Coinbase cell highlights

Against Coinbase, it wins on breadth and loses on crypto depth.

[click] SoFi cell highlights

Against SoFi, it wins on trading and loses on lending.

[click] eToro cell highlights

Against eToro, it wins on U.S. scale and loses on global reach. The similarity: Webull also lives on order flow. The difference: Schwab and SoFi live on interest and lending.

IF CUT (saves ~2 s): say "Against eToro, it loses on global reach." Click 6 still happens. Never cut "5.3 percent, the lowest in that row" or the fee-structure line (Sircar Q1, Q3).

DETAIL MOVED OFF THE SLIDE (for Q&A)

title: Ties or beats every rival on commission; rivals win elsewhere: scale, advice, crypto depth, lending, reach, subscription price or Webull's Premium margin

footer: Sources: Robinhood fee schedule, margin-rates and Gold pages; schwab.com/pricing & margin rates; fidelity.com commissions & margin rates; webull.com pricing, margin & subscription FAQ; SoFi Invest fee schedule & SoFi Plus page; etoro.com/en-us fees (all accessed Oct 13 2026); revenue mix from each firm's Q2 2026 release/10-Q and Schwab FY2025 10-K. Margin-rate dates as shown in each cell.

footnotes: AUA = assets under administration. Interchange = the fee a merchant's bank pays the card issuer on each card purchase (part of SoFi's and Robinhood's card businesses). Net contribution = eToro's revenue after the cost of crypto sold and margin interest. Handling charges = Webull's per-order fees on some products. n/d = not disclosed. n/a = not disclosed in the sources cited.

Stock/ETF commission | $0 | $0 | $0 | $0 | n/a (not disclosed in cited sources) | $0 | $0

Options, per contract | $0 (index $0.50; $0.35 Gold) | $0.65 | $0.65 | $0 (index $0.50) | n/d | $0 | $0

Margin rate at $25K | 5.25 % (Sep 17 2026) | 11.575 % (Sep 18 2026) | 11.575 % (Sep 18 2026) | 8.74 % std / 5.00 % Premium (Mar 31 2026) | n/d | 9.75 % (Oct 1 2026) | n/d

Assets | $369B | $13.41T | $19.9T (AUA) | $28.5B | $245.9B | n/d | $19.2B (AUA)

How it makes money | Trades 59 % · interest 30 % · fees 11 % (Q2) | Net interest, asset-management fees, trading, bank-deposit fees (FY2025 10-K) | n/d (private) | Order-flow rebates 57 % · interest 22 % · handling charges 17 % (Q2) | Transactions 49 % · subscriptions & services 46 % (Q2) | Lending $725M of $1,219M ≈ 59 % (Q2) | Equities, commodities, FX trading ≈ 62 % of net contribution (Q2)

bottom: Similar: Webull and Robinhood both live on order flow. Different: Schwab and SoFi live on interest and lending.

Rates help now; court rulings are the risk

Four risk layers, sized where Robinhood discloses the number

Business model · Competition · Risks · Verdict · Recommendations

MACRO

±$350M

net revenue over 12 months per 100 bp · rates help now

Trading 59% of revenue (54% a year ago) · crypto revenue −38% to $100M

REGULATORY

≥ 8 states

event-contract cases · $156M a quarter ≈ $624M a year exposed

SUPPLY CHAIN

16%

of Q2 revenue from one market maker (Citadel)

OTHER

$21.6B

margin book: credit losses in a sell-off · outages · cyber-attacks · key people

SLIDE 8 · 5:48 → 6:36 · about 42 s aloud at 140 wpm

SAY ALOUD AND DEFINE ON FIRST USE: none on this slide

SCRIPT

Four risk layers.

[click] Macro panel lights

Macro: each one-point move in rates shifts revenue about 350 million a year. The risk is cuts plus slower trading, already 59 percent of revenue, up from 54; crypto revenue fell 38 percent to 100 million.

[click] Regulatory panel lights

Regulatory: event contracts bring 156 million a quarter, about 624 million a year, and are in court in at least eight states.

[click] Supply-chain panel lights

Supply chain: one market maker, Citadel, pays 16 percent of revenue.

[click] Other panel lights

Other: outages, cyber attacks, key people, credit losses on a 21.6 billion margin book. For the Board: rates help now; court rulings are the risk.

IF CUT: nothing (every sentence is one of the rubric's four risk categories or the Board line).

DETAIL MOVED OFF THE SLIDE (for Q&A)

title: Four risk layers — rates help today, but the regulatory and court risks are concentrated in two revenue lines

footer: Sources: Federal Reserve FOMC statement (Sep 16 2026) and calendar; Robinhood Form 10-Q Q2 2026 Item 3 (Jun 30 2026) and FY2025 10-K Items 1, 1A, 7A; SEC Release 33-11377 (Jun 12 2025); FCA Dear CEO letter (Dec 13 2017); ESMA single rulebook, MiFIR Art. 39a; court dockets via CourtListener, supremecourt.gov docket 26-338, W.D. Mich. No. 1:26-cv-00730, ECF 50 stipulated order (Sep 4 2026). Litigation as of Oct 13 2026.

footnotes: Fed funds rate = the overnight rate the Fed targets. FOMC = the Fed committee that sets it. Basis point (bp) = 0.01 percentage point; 100 bp = 1 point. Order Competition Rule / Reg Best Execution = 2022 SEC proposals that would have forced auctions for retail orders and tightened "best price" duties. FCA = UK Financial Conduct Authority. CFTC vs SEC vs state gaming regulators = the CFTC regulates event-contract exchanges; the SEC regulates stock/option brokers; states regulate gambling and argue sports contracts are bets. Supreme Court petition (cert) = a request for the Court to hear the case; merits = the ruling on the case itself. Clearinghouse = the central counterparty that settles trades. Kalshi = KalshiEX LLC, a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists event contracts Robinhood offers (with Rothera, Crypto.com and ForecastEx). Margin book = margin loans customers owe Robinhood at period end.

Macroeconomic: Fed raised the fed funds target by 0.25 pt to 3.75 – 4.00 % on Sep 16 2026 (12–0); next FOMC Oct 27–28 2026. Robinhood: ±100 bp ≈ ±$350M of net revenue over the next 12 months (Jun 30 2026; FY2025 10-K said $304M). Trading cycle: transaction revenue is 59 % of revenue, up from 54 % a year earlier; crypto revenue −38 % to $100M (Q2 2026 vs Q2 2025). "Rates are a tailwind now; the risk is the next easing cycle plus slower trading and deposits."

Regulatory: U.S.: SEC withdrew its Order Competition Rule and Regulation Best Execution proposals (Jun 12 2025); there is no U.S. PFOF ban. UK: PFOF incompatible with MiFID II rules (FCA, Dec 2017). EU: PFOF prohibited by MiFIR Art. 39a; national opt-outs ended Jun 30 2026. Event contracts ($156M a quarter ≈ $624M a year, 12 % of Q2 revenue): Robinhood is a party in cases in at least 8 states (MI, NV, NJ, MA, WA, WI, KY, CA); Ninth Circuit ruled against it (Aug 28 2026); Supreme Court petition No. 26-338, Nevada's response due Nov 13 2026; Michigan sports contracts had to be closed by Oct 9 2026 (stipulated court order) — status as of Oct 13 2026.

Supply chain & key dependencies: Market makers route most orders (see s9); event-contract exchanges: KalshiEX, Rothera (Robinhood–Susquehanna JV), Crypto.com, ForecastEx; clearinghouse deposit and collateral requirements (DTC, NSCC, OCC); partner banks for cash sweep and Coastal Community Bank for banking/card; core platform on Amazon Web Services.

Other: outages, cyber-attacks, dependence on key employees (FY2025 10-K Item 1A risk factors); credit losses on a $21.6B margin book (record, +127 % YoY).

Rivalry is intense; the supplier risk is concentration

Buyers hold power at sign-up; new entrants face a licence wall

Business model · Competition · Risks · Verdict · Recommendations

New entrants

MEDIUM

Suppliers & payers

CONCENTRATED

Substitutes

MEDIUM

Buyers

HIGH AT SIGN-UP

Rivalry

HIGH

78%

of June options orders: Citadel and Dash/IMC · Citadel pays ~16% of revenue

1–3%

transfer bonus at sign-up · once in: $100 exit fee, 5-yr clawback

Licences

clearing and capital rules: the entry wall

SLIDE 9 · 6:36 → 7:15 · about 36 s aloud at 140 wpm

SAY ALOUD AND DEFINE ON FIRST USE: clearing

SCRIPT

Porter's Five Forces. Rivalry is high: every priced rival charges zero commission on stocks. Buyers like Maya hold power at sign-up, when Robinhood pays a 1 to 3 percent transfer bonus; once in, a 100 dollar exit fee holds her. The supplier risk is concentration: Citadel pays about 16 percent of revenue, and with Dash/IMC took 78 percent of June options orders. Substitutes and new entrants are medium: entrants face a licence wall, not an app wall: clearing, meaning settling trades, and capital rules.

IF CUT: nothing (rivalry, buyer power, concentration and clearing are all mock fixes).

DETAIL MOVED OFF THE SLIDE (for Q&A)

title: Rivalry is intense and buyers hold power at sign-up; the supplier risk is concentration (Citadel is a payer, not a supplier); new entrants face a licence wall, not an app wall

footer: Sources: Robinhood Rule 606 report Q2 2026 (generated Jul 28 2026); Form 10-Q Q2 2026 concentration note (Jul 30 2026); FY2025 10-K; RHF Standard Pricing Fee Schedule (effective Oct 15 2026, accessed Oct 13 2026); robinhood.com transfer-bonus page; Robinhood newsroom (Mar 17 2025; Sep 8 2026); competitor pages (accessed Oct 13 2026); eToro Q2 2026 results (Aug 11 2026).

footnotes: Five Forces = Porter's framework: supplier power, buyer power, substitutes, rivalry, new entrants. Rule 606 = the SEC rule requiring brokers to publish where they route orders and what they are paid. FINRA = the brokerage industry's self-regulator. Clearing = settling trades and holding the collateral behind them. Prediction markets = venues for event contracts. Payer concentration = a large share of revenue or orders tied to one counterparty; here Citadel, which pays Robinhood for order flow.

centre: Rivalry — HIGH

Force | Rating | Fact on the slide

Supplier power → concentration risk (market makers pay Robinhood for order flow; exchanges, banks and AWS supply it) | CONCENTRATED | Citadel pays about 16 % of total net revenues (Q2 2026); with Dash/IMC it took 78 % of June 2026 non-directed options orders (45.59 % + 32.43 %); five firms bid for the flow, so Citadel can be replaced at some cost; event contracts spread over 4 exchanges (KalshiEX, Rothera, Crypto.com, ForecastEx)

Buyer power (customers) | HIGH at sign-up, lower once locked in | At sign-up: Robinhood pays a standard 1 % transfer bonus (up to 3 % in the Sep 21 – Oct 16 2026 promotion, taxable accounts; a flat 3 % on transfers from Webull Oct 7–16 2026; most customers get 1 %) and reimburses ≤ $75 on transfers ≥ $7,500. Once in: $100 outgoing transfer fee (ACATS), 5-year bonus clawback, 5-year IRA-match hold

Threat of substitutes | MEDIUM | State-licensed sportsbooks for sports event contracts (the Nevada Resort Association intervened against Robinhood, 9th Cir. 25-7831)

Rivalry | HIGH | Every rival on s7 with a cited price charges $0 stock commissions (Coinbase n/a); only Schwab and Fidelity still charge for options ($0.65 a contract); Webull, Coinbase, Interactive Brokers and Public also list prediction markets

Threat of new entrants | MEDIUM | eToro now public (4.28M funded accounts, Q2 2026); Public.com (private) pays options rebates; incumbents adding products — Schwab spot crypto "coming soon" at 0.75 %. Barrier = licences, clearing and capital rules, not the app: "The SEC and FINRA have stringent rules… with respect to the maintenance of specific levels of net capital"

Viable: yes, conditional on three variables

Trading volume, the rate cycle and event-contract rulings

Business model · Competition · Risks · Verdict · Recommendations

Strengths

28.4M funded · 57% adj. EBITDA margin

Weaknesses

$13.0K per customer · 59% from trading

Opportunities

Retirement · > $3B banking · > 1M abroad

Threats

−$350M per 100 bp of cuts · $156M/qtr in court · Schwab/Fidelity scale

SLIDE 10 · 7:15 → 7:39 · about 22 s aloud at 140 wpm

SAY ALOUD AND DEFINE ON FIRST USE: none on this slide

SCRIPT

Strengths: 28.4 million funded and a 57 percent margin. Weaknesses: 13 thousand per customer and 59 percent from trading. Opportunities: retirement, banking, customers abroad. Threats: rate cuts, courts, and Schwab and Fidelity's scale. Is the strategy viable? Yes, conditional on three variables: trading volume, the rate cycle and the event-contract rulings.

IF CUT: nothing. This is the rubric's "viable" line.

DETAIL MOVED OFF THE SLIDE (for Q&A)

title: Viable: yes — conditional on trading volume, the rate cycle and the event-contract rulings

footer: Sources: Robinhood Q2 2026 release (Jul 29 2026); Form 10-Q Q2 2026 (Jul 30 2026); robinhood.com IRA page (accessed Oct 13 2026). Platform assets per funded customer, incl. ≈ $50B advisor (RIA) assets; ≈ $11.2K ex-advisor.

footnotes: SWOT = Strengths, Weaknesses (internal) · Opportunities, Threats (external).

Strengths: scale (28.4M funded) · breadth (6 of 6 product lines) · cost (57 % adj. EBITDA margin)

Weaknesses: small balances (≈ $13K assets / customer) · 59 % of revenue from trading

Opportunities: retirement (3 % Gold IRA match, up to $225 a year) · banking (> $3B deposits) · international (> 1M funded)

Threats: rate cuts plus slower trading and deposits (≈ $350M per 100 bp) · event-contract rulings ($156M/qtr at stake) · PFOF scrutiny abroad · entrants (s9)

Three changes management has not made yet

Each has a metric and a dollar weight

Business model · Competition · Risks · Verdict · Recommendations

17%

≥ 30%

trend

24–29%

Household Gold tier

+$221M

revenue a year, upper bound (~$173M at realized price)

$572M

≥ $1.2B

Other revenues target

+$0.6B

a year, roughly double; dollars, not a share

$156M/qtr

≤ 25%

Disclose, then cap

$156M

a quarter exposed · disclose from Q1 2027, then cap · federal loss = all

SLIDE 11 · 7:39 → 8:42 · about 54 s aloud at 140 wpm

SAY ALOUD AND DEFINE ON FIRST USE: family hub

SCRIPT

What should Robinhood build for Maya? Three changes management has not made yet, each with a metric and a dollar weight.

[click] Gold bar grows 17% → 30%, trend band shows

One: price the family hub, a family accounts view announced in March, not launched, as a household Gold tier. Gold is 17 percent of customers, 24 to 29 percent by 2028 on trend; my target is 30 percent: up to 221 million a year, about 173 million at the realized price.

[click] other-revenues bar grows $572M → $1.2B

Two: a dollar target for other revenues, the line that holds Gold: at least 1.2 billion in 2028, roughly double today's 572 million.

[click] contested-state cap appears

Three: disclose event-contract revenue from contested states every quarter from 2027, then cap it at 25 percent of that line. A federal loss would remove all 156 million a quarter.

IF CUT: nothing. Rubric line 4 (10 points) lives here; say 572, not 570.

DETAIL MOVED OFF THE SLIDE (for Q&A)

title: Three changes management has not made yet — each with a metric and a dollar weight

footer: Sources: Robinhood Q2 2026 release (Jul 29 2026); Form 10-Q Q2 2026 Note 6 (Jul 30 2026); robinhood.com/gold (accessed Oct 13 2026); Robinhood newsroom (Mar 4 2026). Dollar weights = author's calculations from these figures.

footnotes: Run-rate = Q2 2026 revenue × 4. Contested states = states where Robinhood is in event-contract litigation (s8 list). Upper bound = assumes every new subscriber pays the $5 monthly price. Adoption rate = Gold subscribers ÷ funded customers (Robinhood's own KPI). Trend = Gold growth continued at last year's pace (+1.36M a year) or last quarter's (+0.5M a quarter) on a customer base growing 7 % a year. Family hub = a view of accounts grouped by family member, announced Mar 4 2026 and "rolling out later this year": not launched, and no family price exists.

# | Recommended change | Metric | Dollar weight | Why it fits s8

1 | Price the family hub as a household Gold tier: hub announced Mar 4 2026, "rolling out later this year": announced, not launched; no family subscription exists | Gold adoption rate = Gold subscribers ÷ funded customers (Robinhood's KPI): 17 % (4.84M ÷ 28.4M, Jun 30 2026) → trend ≈ 24–29 % by Dec 31 2028 → target ≥ 30 % by Dec 31 2028, above trend | ≈ +$221M/yr of revenue, upper bound (30 % × 28.4M = 8.52M; 8.52M − 4.84M = 3.68M × $60); ≈ $173M at Q2's realized ≈ $47.06 per subscriber; revenue, not profit (Gold pays 3.6 % on cash and the IRA match) | Adds revenue that is not trade-driven

2 | Set and disclose a dollar target for "Other revenues" (Note 6: Gold 54 · proxy 42 · other 47 in Q2 2026): ≥ $1.2B in FY2028, roughly double; no target is disclosed today | Other revenues in dollars, never a share: $143M in Q2 2026 = $572M annualized (Q2 × 4; Q2 holds most proxy revenue, which is seasonal and paid by companies: $42M of H1's $50M; H1 × 2 = $456M) → ≥ $1.2B in FY2028 | ≈ +$0.6B/yr ($1.2B − $572M = $628M; ≈ $593M to $1,165M a year, the level at which Other revenues would be 20 % of revenue if the other lines held flat) | Would more than cover the ≈ $350M-per-100-bp rate exposure

3 | Disclose contested-state event-contract revenue each quarter from Q1 2027; cap it at 25 % of the event-contract line once the baseline is known | Contested-state share of event-contract revenue (not disclosed today); first disclosure Q1 2027 | Exposed line = $156M/qtr ≈ $624M/yr = 12 % of revenue; the cap limits a state-by-state hit to ≤ $39M/qtr (≤ 3 % of revenue); a federal loss removes all $156M | Sizes the court risk before the Supreme Court acts

notesOnSlide: Rec 1's revenue sits inside rec 2's Other revenues target (Gold is part of that line), so the two are not additive. Rec 1 trend: Gold 4.84M + 1.36M a year × 2.5 = 8.2M, or + 0.5M a quarter × 10 = 9.8M, over 28.4M × 1.07^2.5 ≈ 33.6M customers = ≈ 24–29 % at Dec 31 2028; the target sits above that range. Rec 1 guardrail: price the household tier above one $5 seat, so households already paying for two seats cannot trade down; Gold revenue per subscribing household must not fall. Gold's 3.6 % cash APY is itself rate-linked, so the dollar weight is revenue, not profit. Rec 2: a dollar target, never a share (a share also falls when trading revenue falls); the products exist (Gold, Gold Card, Strategies, Banking); proxy revenue is seasonal and paid by companies; securities lending is excluded (Robinhood reports it in net interest). Rec 3: Robinhood is the intermediary, so the exposure is revenue plus legal cost, not principal; the cap sizes only a state-by-state hit, and a federal loss removes the whole line; the Supreme Court's next step is deciding whether to hear the case.

Proceed to Phase 2, subject to 3 checks

Business model · Competition · Risks · Verdict · Recommendations

RECOMMENDATION TO THE BOARD

Why it can work: $0 trading + broadest app + 57% margin; risk = rates and courts

Oct 27 Q3 results: stop if net deposits < 10% annualized and options < 774M

Oct 28 FOMC: each 100 bp cut = −$350M a year

Nov 13 Nevada answers No. 26-338: review denied = model $156M impaired

Questions?

SLIDE 12 · 8:42 → 9:30 · about 42 s aloud at 140 wpm

SAY ALOUD AND DEFINE ON FIRST USE: Phase 2, Nevada

SCRIPT

My recommendation to the Board: proceed to Phase 2, my valuation presentation, subject to three checks. It can work: free trading, the broadest app, a 57 percent margin. October 27th, Q3 results: stop if net deposits grow under 10 percent annualized and options fall below 774 million. October 28th, the Fed: each one-point cut costs about 350 million a year. November 13th: Nevada, whose regulators beat Robinhood in court, answers Robinhood's Supreme Court petition; if review is denied, I model the 156 million line as impaired. For Maya, trading is free. For you, investing is conditional. Thank you. Questions?

IF CUT: nothing.

DETAIL MOVED OFF THE SLIDE (for Q&A)

title: Recommendation to the Board: proceed to Phase 2 valuation, subject to three checks

footer: Sources: Robinhood IR (Oct 1 2026); federalreserve.gov FOMC calendar (accessed Oct 13 2026); supremecourt.gov docket 26-338 (accessed Oct 13 2026); Q2 2026 release and Form 10-Q (Jul 29–30 2026); August 2026 operating data (Sep 10 2026).

footnotes: FOMC = the Federal Reserve committee that sets the policy rate. Phase 2 = Presentation 2: financials and valuation. Nevada = Nevada's gaming regulators (Gaming Control Board and Gaming Commission) and other state officials, joined by the Nevada Resort Association, who won the Ninth Circuit appeal on Robinhood's event contracts (No. 25-7831, Aug 28 2026). Impaired = modelled as at risk of being lost, not as zero today.

- Q3 2026 results — Tue Oct 27 2026 (Robinhood IR, Oct 1 2026). Decision rule: stop if Q3 net-deposit growth is under 10 % annualized and options contracts fall below Q2's 774M

- FOMC rate decision — Oct 28 2026 (Federal Reserve calendar). Decision rule: each 100 bp cut ≈ −$350M of net revenue over 12 months

- Supreme Court petition No. 26-338 (Robinhood Derivatives v. Dreitzer) — Nevada's response due Nov 13 2026 (supremecourt.gov docket). Decision rule: if review is denied, model the $156M-a-quarter event-contract line as impaired

word: Questions?

Key figures: Q2 2026 at a glance

Appendix

Metric	Value	As of	Source
Net revenue	$1,308M	Q2 2026	Q2 release
Transaction-based revenue	$776M (59.3%)	Q2 2026	10-Q Note 6
Options · event contracts · equities · crypto · other	$342M · $156M · $129M · $100M · $49M	Q2 2026	10-Q Note 6
Net interest revenue	$389M (29.7%)	Q2 2026	10-Q Note 6
Other revenues (incl. Gold $54M)	$143M (10.9%)	Q2 2026	10-Q Note 6
Funded customers	28.4M → 28.6M	Jun 30 → Aug 31 2026	Q2 release; Aug data
Platform assets	$369B → $384B	Jun 30 → Aug 31 2026	Q2 release; Aug data
Platform assets per funded customer	≈ $13.0K	Jun 30 2026	$369B ÷ 28.4M
Net deposits	$21.7B (Q2) · $75.7B (LTM)	Q2 2026	Q2 release
Gold subscribers	4.8M (17% of funded)	Jun 30 2026	Q2 release
ARPU, annualized	$187	Q2 2026	Q2 release
Adj. EBITDA margin	57% ($741M ÷ $1,308M)	Q2 2026	Q2 release
Options contracts traded	774M (+50% YoY)	Q2 2026	Q2 release
PFOF, options + equities	$471M (36% of revenue)	Q2 2026	10-Q Note 6
Event-contract revenue	$156M (12% of revenue)	Q2 2026	10-Q Note 6
PFOF on stocks, share of the spread	12.35% (regular hours)	Q2 2026	Rule 606 report
Citadel: non-directed options orders · revenue	45.6% (June) · 16% (Q2)	Q2 2026	Rule 606; 10-Q
Net revenue sensitivity to rates	±$350M per 100 bp	Jun 30 2026	10-Q Item 3
International funded customers	> 1M	Jun 30 2026	Q2 release
Churned funded customers	0.4M (~1.5% of 27.4M) · FY2025 1.7M (~6.7%)	Q2 2026	10-Q KPI table; 10-K

APPENDIX (unspoken backup). Q&A answers this slide backs:

Q1 — "If trading is free, how does Robinhood make money?"

Three ways. Last quarter, 1,308 million dollars: 59 percent from transactions, mostly market makers paying for order flow; 30 percent net interest on customer cash and margin loans; and 11 percent other revenue, led by Gold. Customers pay through the spread and on margin, not per trade. Schwab is the opposite: it lives on net interest and asset-management fees.

Source: [H7] 10-Q Q2 2026 Note 6 (776 / 389 / 143 = 1,308; margin interest 215; Gold 54 is the largest other-revenue line); [C-S5] Schwab FY2025 10-K. Slide 3, 4, 7.

Q3 — "Who is the customer?"

A young-money, often first-time investor. Often more than half of new customers say Robinhood is their first brokerage account. There are 28.4 million funded customers, with about 13 thousand dollars of assets each, versus about 334 thousand per account at Schwab. Robinhood's stated target is the next generation of investors.

Source: [H8] FY2025 10-K Item 1A ("often more than 50%"); [H1] 28.4M, $369B (assets per funded customer ≈ $13K, incl. ≈ $50B advisor/RIA assets; ≈ $11.2K ex-advisor, [H7d]); [C-S1] Schwab. Slide 2, 6.

Q4 — "Why would anyone pay for Gold?"

Because it pays for itself fast. Gold is 5 dollars a month and pays 3.6 percent on cash. Someone with 2 thousand dollars in cash earns 72 dollars a year, more than the 60-dollar cost, plus a 3 percent IRA match worth up to 225 dollars. 4.8 million people subscribe, and about 40 percent of new customers signed up last quarter.

Source: [H4] robinhood.com/gold (3.6 % APY, $5/mo, 3 % IRA match); IRA match "up to $225 based on the 2026 maximum contribution" (cache robinhood_pages.md line 51); [H1] 4.8M, ~40 %; robinhood.com high-yield cash disclosure: the program "allows Robinhood Gold subscribers ($5 monthly subscription) to earn interest on eligible cash" (so non-Gold cash earns no program interest). Slide 4. (Arithmetic: $2,000 × 3.6 % = $72.)

Q9 — "Rates went up. Is that good for Robinhood, and when does it reverse?"

Good today. Each one-point move adds or removes about 350 million dollars of annual revenue. The Fed raised to 3.75 to 4 percent on September 16th, and its median projection holds about 4.1 percent through 2027, easing to 3.9 in 2028. So the reversal risk is later, unless trading slows first.

Source: [H7b] 10-Q Item 3 ($350M, Jun 30 2026); [M1] FOMC Sep 16 2026; [M3] FOMC projections Sep 16 2026. Slide 8.

Q11 — "One wholesaler handles almost half your options flow. Isn't that a risk?"

Yes, but it is concentration, not supplier power: Citadel pays Robinhood. It took 45.6 percent of June options orders, 78 percent together with Dash/IMC, and was 16 percent of revenue last quarter. Five firms compete for that flow, and orders go to whoever has historically given the best prices, so Citadel can be replaced, at some cost.

Source: [R1] Rule 606 June 2026 (Citadel 45.59 %, Dash/IMC 32.43 % = 78.02 % of non-directed options orders); [H7c] 10-Q concentration note (Citadel 16 % of total net revenues); [H8] 10-K order-routing description. Slide 8, 9.

Q14 — "Does account size predict whether customers stay? How does Robinhood keep them?"

Churn is disclosed, not by account size, and counts only zero-balance customers: 0.4 million of 27.4 million last quarter, about 1.5 percent. So my proxy for staying is net deposits: 21.7 billion dollars last quarter, slowing in August. The lock-ins are Gold, an IRA match up to 225 dollars, and five-year bonus clawbacks.

Source: [H7d] 10-Q Q2 2026 KPI table (0.4M churned of 27.4M beginning = 1.46 % ≈ 1.5 %; churned = balance at or below zero and no transaction for 45 days); FY2025 10-K 1.7M of 25.2M ≈ 6.7 %; [H1] $21.7B; [H6] August $4.0B (14 %); IRA match up to $225 (cache robinhood_pages.md line 51); [H10] transfer bonus 5-year hold; [H4] IRA match five-year hold. Slide 2, 5.

Q15 — "What does Robinhood spend to win a customer, and what is the payback on a big transfer bonus?"

Marketing was 104 million dollars last quarter, about 116 dollars per new funded customer, roughly seven months of the 187-dollar average revenue per user. A 3 percent bonus on a 50 thousand dollar transfer is 1,500 dollars, eight years at the average; that account likely earns more than average, which I cannot size, and the five-year clawback protects the bonus.

Source: [H7] 10-Q income statement "Marketing | 99 | 104" (cache q2_2026_10q.txt line 313); [H7d] new funded customers 0.9M (line 1147); [H1] ARPU $187. Calc: 104 ÷ 0.9 = $115.6 per new funded customer; 115.6 ÷ 187 × 12 = 7.4 months; 3 % × $50,000 = $1,500; 1,500 ÷ 187 = 8.0 years. [VERIFY: whether transfer-bonus cost is booked inside Marketing.] Slide 2, 9.

Q16 — "Is crypto shrinking?"

Yes. Crypto revenue fell 38 percent, from 160 to 100 million, on lower rebate rates and 16 percent fewer customers trading crypto. Trading still rose to 59 percent of revenue, from 54, because event contracts and options grew faster. That swing is why trading volume is my first condition.

Source: [H7] 10-Q MD&A "Cryptocurrencies | 160 | 100 | (38) | %" (cache q2_2026_10q.txt line 1244); "lower cryptocurrency rebate rates from crypto market makers, a 16% … decrease in the number of users placing cryptocurrency trades" (line 1258); transaction-based revenue 54 % → 59 % of total (line 1254). Slide 8.

Q17 — "The margin book more than doubled. Where is credit risk?"

On the Other risk panel: credit losses on the margin book. Margin lending grew 127 percent in a year to a record 21.6 billion dollars, and margin interest, 215 million, is the largest net-interest line. In a sharp sell-off, margin loans customers cannot repay become losses. That is a risk I flag, not one I can size.

Source: [H1] "Margin Book increased 127% year-over-year to a record $21.6 billion." (cache q2_2026_release.md line 58); [H7] margin interest $215M (10-Q line 676). Slide 8.

Competitor detail: fees, scale and revenue mix

Appendix

	Robinhood	Schwab	Fidelity	Webull	Coinbase	SoFi	eToro (US)
Stock/ETF commission	$0	$0	$0	$0	n/a (not disclosed in cited sources)	$0	$0
Options, per contract	$0 (index $0.50; $0.35 Gold)	$0.65	$0.65	$0 (index $0.50)	n/d	$0	$0
Margin rate at $25K	5.25% (Sep 17 2026)	11.575% (Sep 18 2026)	11.575% (Sep 18 2026)	8.74% std / 5.00% Premium (Mar 31 2026)	n/d	9.75% (Oct 1 2026)	n/d
Subscription	Gold $5/mo	none	none	Premium $3.99/mo	n/a (not disclosed in cited sources)	SoFi Plus $10/mo	n/d
Customers (own definition)	28.4M funded	40.1M accounts	n/d	5.13M funded	7.6M monthly users	15.8M members	4.28M funded (worldwide)
Assets	$369B	$13.41T	$19.9T (AUA)	$28.5B	$245.9B	n/d	$19.2B (AUA)
How it makes money	Trades 59% · interest 30% · fees 11% (Q2)	Net interest, asset-management fees, trading, bank-deposit fees (FY2025 10-K)	n/d (private; no segment mix)	Order-flow rebates 57% · interest 22% · handling charges 17% (Q2)	Transactions 49% · subscriptions & services 46% (Q2)	Lending $725M of $1,219M ≈ 59% (Q2)	Equities, commodities, FX trading ≈ 62% of net contribution (Q2)
One-line verdict	–	wins options & margin price; loses scale	wins same prices; loses scale & in-person advice	wins scale; loses subscription price and Premium margin (5.00%, Mar 31 2026)	wins breadth (6 vs 3 lines); loses crypto depth	wins trading; loses lending	wins U.S. scale; loses global reach

APPENDIX (unspoken backup). Q&A answers this slide backs:

Q5 — "Why would I choose Robinhood over Schwab or Fidelity?"

On fee structure, Robinhood is cheaper for an active trader: zero commission per options contract versus 65 cents, and 5.25 percent margin at 25 thousand dollars versus 11.575 at both. Schwab and Fidelity win on advice, branches and scale. So Robinhood wins the active, younger trader; Schwab and Fidelity win the wealthy, advised client.

Source: [H2] RHF fee schedule (zero commission; a combined $0.04 regulatory fee per options contract applies); [H3] margin rates (Sep 17 2026); [C-S2, C-S3] Schwab; [C-F2] Fidelity (Sep 18 2026). Slide 7.

Q6 — "Isn't Webull the same thing?"

Same model, much smaller: 5.13 million funded accounts and 28.5 billion dollars of assets, against Robinhood's 28.4 million and 369 billion. Both live on order flow. Webull wins on subscriber price: Premium is 3.99 dollars a month, and its Premium margin was 5.00 percent on March 31st, before the September hike.

Source: [C-W1] Webull Q2 2026 release (Aug 19 2026: 5.13M funded accounts, $28.5B); [H1] 28.4M, $369B; [C-W4] Premium $3.99/month; [C-W3] Premium margin 5.00 % at the $25K tier, "as of March 31, 2026" (saved page scratchpad/web/wb_marginpg.txt); Robinhood's 5.25 % is dated Sep 17 2026 [H3], after the Sep 16 hike [M1], so the comparison is not like-for-like. Slide 6, 7.

Q7 — "What stops Schwab from going fully free and crushing Robinhood?"

Nothing on price, and that is the point. Schwab already cut commissions to zero in October 2019, which cost it about 3 to 4 percent of revenue. What it keeps is a 65-cent options fee and an 11.575 percent margin rate, because its model is interest and asset-management fees. Matching Robinhood means giving up revenue to win small accounts.

Source: [C-S6] Schwab Q3 2019 10-Q ("approximately $90-100 million… 3-4% of total net revenues"); [C-S2, C-S3]. Slide 2, 7.

Q18 — "Is Robinhood paying to take Webull's customers?"

In effect, this week, yes. Its transfer promotion pays a personalized 1, 2 or 3 percent, but transfers from Webull between October 7th and 16th get a flat 3 percent. The money must stay five years or the bonus can be taken back. That is buyer power at sign-up: Robinhood pays to pull accounts in.

Source: [H10] transfer-bonus terms: "eligible ACATS transfers that originate from Webull Financial LLC (“Webull”) between October 7, 2026, and October 16, 2026, will receive a flat Bonus Rate of 3%." (cache raw/rh/acat_match.txt line 54); personalized 1 %, 2 % or 3 % otherwise; 5-year hold [H10]. Slide 9.

Q19 — "Where is Interactive Brokers, and who else could enter?"

In my appendix bench, not on the map. Interactive Brokers is the active-trader rival: 5.576 million accounts, 65 cents an option against Robinhood's zero commission, and 5.38 percent margin at 25 thousand dollars against 5.25. The entrant I did not weigh is a bank that already holds the licences and adds free trading.

Source: [C-I1] IBKR September 2026 metrics, "5.576 million client accounts" (saved page scratchpad/web/ib_sep.txt line 14); [C-I3] options "USD 0.65 /contract" (ibkr_opt.txt); [C-I4] margin "USD 0 ≤ 100,000 5.380% (BM + 1.5% )" (ibkr_margin.txt); [H3] Robinhood 5.25 %. The bank entrant is my judgment: the licence wall stops a startup, not a bank that already holds the licences. Slide 9; appendix slide 14.

Sources

Appendix

Robinhood filings

Q2 2026 results release (Jul 29 2026) · Form 10-Q Q2 2026 (filed Jul 30 2026) · FY2025 Form 10-K (filed Feb 18 2026) · August 2026 operating data (Sep 10 2026) · Q3 results-date notice (Oct 1 2026) · Rule 606 report Q2 2026 (Jul 28 2026)

robinhood.com (accessed Oct 13 2026)

Gold · margin rates · trading fees / fee schedule (incl. $100 outgoing ACATS) · referral program · account-transfer bonus · IRA match · newsroom (Mar 17 2025, Mar 4 2026, Aug 10 2026, Sep 8 2026, Sep 29 2026)

Denominators (s6)

Robinhood/Webull/eToro funded customers or accounts · Schwab active accounts · Coinbase monthly transacting users · SoFi members.

Regulators & courts

Federal Reserve FOMC statement Sep 16 2026 + calendar · SEC Release 33-11377 (Jun 12 2025) · FCA Dear CEO letter (Dec 13 2017) · ESMA MiFIR Art. 39a · Ninth Circuit No. 25-7831 (Aug 28 2026) · Supreme Court docket 26-338 · W.D. Mich. 1:26-cv-00730 stipulated order (ECF 50, Sep 4 2026) · CourtListener dockets (NJ, MA, WA, WI, KY, CA)

Competitors

Schwab (monthly activity Sep 15 2026; pricing; margin; crypto page; FY2025 10-K; Q3 2019 10-Q; Oct 1 2019 release) · Fidelity (Q2 2026 business update; commissions & margin) · Webull (Q2 2026 release Aug 19 2026; pricing; margin; subscription FAQ) · Coinbase (10-Q Q2 2026) · SoFi (Q2 2026 release Jul 29 2026; Invest fee schedule; SoFi Plus) · eToro (Q2 2026 results Aug 11 2026; US fees) · Interactive Brokers (Sep 2026 metrics; pricing; margin rates) · Public.com

APPENDIX (unspoken backup). Q&A answers this slide backs:

Q8 — "Could PFOF be banned in the U.S., like in the UK and EU?"

It is banned there, not here, and U.S. rule-making is moving the other way. In June 2025 the SEC withdrew its Order Competition Rule and best-execution proposals and said it does not intend to finalize them. The exposure is real, 471 million dollars a quarter, so it is a headline risk, not a rule-making risk today.

Source: [G1] SEC Release 33-11377 (Jun 12 2025, "does not intend to issue final rules"); [G2, G3]; [H7]. Slide 8.

Q10 — "Are event contracts durable under legal attack?"

Not yet proven. They brought 156 million dollars last quarter, 12 percent of revenue, about 624 million a year. The Ninth Circuit ruled against Robinhood in August, and Michigan sports contracts had to be closed by October 9th. Nevada's response to the Supreme Court petition is due November 13th. A federal loss removes the whole line, so I say disclose first, then cap.

Source: [H7] $156M (× 4 = $624M a year); [L1] 9th Cir. 25-7831 (Aug 28 2026); [L2] docket 26-338; [L3] Michigan order. Slide 8, 11, 12. Status as of Oct 13 2026; re-read the docket Thursday 8:00 AM.

Glossary and notes

Appendix

Brokerage* = a firm that trades investments for customers

Zero commission* = no fee per trade

Funded customer* = money in an account or a trade in the last 45 days

Platform assets* = customers' money, not Robinhood's

Net deposits* = new money in minus money out

Gold* = Robinhood's $5-a-month subscription

PFOF* = payment for order flow: a market maker pays the broker for orders

Market maker* = a wholesaler ready to buy or sell

Bid-ask spread* = the gap between buying and selling prices

Options* = contracts giving the right to buy or sell a stock at a set price

Event contracts* = yes-or-no contracts on outcomes

Net interest revenue* = interest earned on customer cash and margin loans

Margin* = money lent to customers against their stocks

Proxy* = a stand-in measure (net deposits stand in for customers staying)

IRA* = individual retirement account (tax-advantaged)

Clawback* = a bonus taken back if the money leaves within 5 years

Order flow* = customers' buy and sell orders, which market makers pay to receive

Clearing* = settling trades and holding the collateral behind them

Family hub* = a family accounts view, announced Mar 4 2026, not launched

Phase 2* = Presentation 2: financials and valuation

Nevada* = Nevada's gaming regulators, who won the Ninth Circuit appeal (No. 25-7831)

Referral stock = free shares given to a customer who invites a friend who funds an account

Transfer-match = a cash bonus equal to a % of assets moved in from another broker

MiCA / MiFID = the EU's crypto-asset and investment-services licensing regimes

MAS = Monetary Authority of Singapore

APY = annual percentage yield

Churn = share of customers who leave in a period; Robinhood counts a customer as churned when the balance is ≤ $0 with no transaction for 45 days, so leavers who keep a balance are not counted

n/d = not disclosed

Returning = a churned customer who funds an account again (the 10-Q's "resurrected")

Acquired = customers added by buying a company (WonderFi, Canada, Jun 1 2026)

Yield = interest rate earned on a balance

Cash sweep = customers' uninvested cash moved to partner banks; Robinhood keeps the spread between the bank rate and the rate paid to customers

Securities lending = lending customers' shares to short-sellers for a fee

Segregated cash = customer cash held in protected accounts as regulators require

Proxy revenue = fees companies (issuers), not customers, pay Robinhood's Say Technologies unit to send shareholder-vote materials and tally the votes; seasonal: $42M of H1 2026's $50M came in Q2

ARPU = average revenue per user, annualized ($187 in Q2 2026)

APPENDIX (unspoken backup). Q&A answers this slide backs:

Q2 — "What exactly is PFOF, and who pays it?"

Market makers pay it. When you buy a stock, Robinhood routes the order to a market maker like Citadel, which earns the bid-ask spread and pays Robinhood a share. On stocks that share is 12.35 percent of the spread. Options and equities together brought in 471 million dollars last quarter, 36 percent of revenue.

Source: [R1] Rule 606 Q2 2026 ("12.35% of the spread during the regular market hours"); [H7] options 342 + equities 129. Slide 3.

Q12 — "Would you invest, and what would change your mind?"

Proceed to the valuation, not buy yet; price decides that. Viable: a 57 percent adjusted EBITDA margin, and all three revenue streams grew. Conditional: 59 percent is trading, event contracts are in court, and each one-point rate cut costs about 350 million. I say no if net deposits and trading fall together. In August deposits slowed; options volume was still up 50 percent.

Source: [H1] adjusted EBITDA $741M ÷ $1,308M = 57 %; [H7] Note 6 (transaction 539 → 776, net interest 357 → 389, other 93 → 143; trading 54 % → 59 % of revenue); [H7b] $350M per 100 bp; [H6] August 2026: net deposits $4.0B (14 % annualized), options 293M (+50 % YoY). Slide 10, 12.

Q13 — "Why hasn't management already done each of your three recommendations?"

One: the family hub, announced in March, is still rolling out, and Gold grew 39 percent without a family price. Two: trading lines grow faster, event contracts over 10 times, and a public dollar target is a promise management could miss. Three: Robinhood is litigating, and disclosure could be used in court; but an undisclosed exposure gets priced at its worst case.

Source: [H1] Gold +39 % YoY; event contracts "up over 10x"; [N4] family hub announced Mar 4 2026, "rolling out to customers later this year" (announced, not launched); [L1–L5] litigation posture. Slide 11.

Glossary and notes (continued)

Appendix

Prediction markets = the app section where event contracts trade

Adjusted EBITDA = earnings before interest, taxes, depreciation and amortization, excluding stock pay and one-offs (Robinhood's definition)

AUM = assets under management

Self-clearing = Robinhood settles its own trades instead of paying a clearing firm

Wallet share = the fraction of a customer's total financial business (investing, saving, spending) that sits with one company

Perpetual futures = futures contracts with no expiry date

Cboe = the options exchange operator

AUA = assets under administration

Interchange = the fee a merchant's bank pays the card issuer on each card purchase (part of SoFi's and Robinhood's card businesses)

Net contribution = eToro's revenue after the cost of crypto sold and margin interest

Handling charges = Webull's per-order fees on some products

n/a = not disclosed in the sources cited

Fed funds rate = the overnight rate the Fed targets

FOMC = the Fed committee that sets it

Basis point (bp) = 0.01 percentage point; 100 bp = 1 point

Order Competition Rule / Reg Best Execution = 2022 SEC proposals that would have forced auctions for retail orders and tightened "best price" duties

FCA = UK Financial Conduct Authority

CFTC vs SEC vs state gaming regulators = the CFTC regulates event-contract exchanges; the SEC regulates stock/option brokers; states regulate gambling and argue sports contracts are bets

Supreme Court petition (cert) = a request for the Court to hear the case;

merits = the ruling on the case itself

Clearinghouse = the central counterparty that settles trades

Kalshi = KalshiEX LLC, a CFTC-regulated exchange that lists event contracts Robinhood offers (with Rothera, Crypto.com and ForecastEx)

Margin book = margin loans customers owe Robinhood at period end

Five Forces = Porter's framework: supplier power, buyer power, substitutes, rivalry, new entrants

Rule 606 = the SEC rule requiring brokers to publish where they route orders and what they are paid

FINRA = the brokerage industry's self-regulator

Payer concentration = a large share of revenue or orders tied to one counterparty; here Citadel, which pays Robinhood for order flow

SWOT = Strengths, Weaknesses (internal) · Opportunities, Threats (external)

Run-rate = Q2 2026 revenue × 4

Contested states = states where Robinhood is in event-contract litigation (s8 list)

Upper bound = assumes every new subscriber pays the $5 monthly price

Adoption rate = Gold subscribers ÷ funded customers (Robinhood's own KPI)

Trend = Gold growth continued at last year's pace (+1.36M a year) or last quarter's (+0.5M a quarter) on a customer base growing 7% a year

Impaired = modelled as at risk of being lost, not as zero today